We pulled Google Trends data for 14 UK holiday destinations across January 2025 to March 2026. Some of it confirms what operators have been reporting. Some of it contradicts it entirely.
On 28 February 2026, US and Israeli forces launched joint military strikes on Iran. The retaliatory response hit Gulf states including the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait. Dubai International Airport was severely disrupted. Airspace across the Middle East closed almost immediately. More than 46,000 flights were cancelled.
For UK tour operators, the question that followed was immediate: where did consumer demand go? We pulled Google Trends data for 14 major UK holiday destinations (UK, Web Search, Travel category, January 2025 to March 2026) to find out.
The data at a glance
All figures are year-on-year percentage change: March 2026 index vs March 2025 index for the same search term. Google Trends scales each destination to its own 0 to 100 within the selected period, so index values cannot be compared across destinations. The YoY percentage is the correct metric.
| Destination | Mar 2025 | Mar 2026 | YoY | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canary Islands | 48 | 69 | +43.8% | Biggest winner in dataset |
| UK Holidays | 74 | 95 | +28.4% | Staycation boom confirmed |
| Spain | 78 | 100 | +28.2% | Confirmed by operator data |
| France | 75 | 95 | +26.7% | Underreported winner |
| Mallorca | 74 | 90 | +21.6% | Balearics performing strongly |
| Italy | 77 | 84 | +9.1% | Positive but modest |
| Portugal | 89 | 93 | +4.5% | Well below operator-reported +42% |
| Cyprus | 81 | 82 | +1.2% | Flat despite -40% booking drop |
| Greece | 81 | 79 | -2.5% | Marginal, not a clear loser |
| Malta | 74 | 72 | -2.7% | Marginal |
| Turkey | 85 | 81 | -4.7% | Sentiment-driven decline |
| Egypt | 63 | 55 | -12.7% | Despite no FCDO resort advisory |
| Croatia | 79 | 68 | -13.9% | Named as a winner in trade press |
| Dubai | 73 | 57 | -21.9% | FCDO: advise against travel |
Source: Google Trends, UK, Web Search, Travel category, Jan 2025 to Mar 2026. Each destination indexed independently to its own 0 to 100 scale within the period. YoY % change is the correct comparison metric.
A note on the data
Google Trends indexes each destination independently to a 0 to 100 scale within the selected time period. A value of 100 simply means the highest point for that destination within the 15-month window. Index values are not comparable across destinations. The YoY percentage change is the correct metric throughout this analysis.
The winners
The Canary Islands recorded the biggest year-on-year gain in the dataset at +43.8%. The islands are perceived as geographically and politically distant from the conflict, warm year-round, and well served by UK carriers. They are the default winter-sun alternative for British holidaymakers and the data reflects that clearly.
Spain is up 28.2% year-on-year, with search interest climbing strongly through February and March 2026. This is confirmed by operator booking data. UK staycations are up 28.4%, with separate data showing searches for “UK holiday cottages” up 260% in the same period.
France is up 26.7% year-on-year and is arguably the most underreported story of the demand shift. It is the third-biggest winner in the dataset and barely features in trade press coverage. The likely reason: France is not primarily a package holiday destination in the way Spain and Portugal are. Eurotunnel, ferry travel and independent bookings mean much of the France demand does not flow through the tour operators generating the public commentary. But the search interest is real.
Mallorca is up 21.6%, Italy up 9.1%, and Portugal up 4.5%.
The losers
Dubai is down 21.9% year-on-year. The FCDO currently advises against all but essential travel to the UAE. Egypt is down 12.7% despite the FCDO not advising against travel to Egyptian resort areas. This is a consumer sentiment story, not a safety advisory story.
Croatia is down 13.9% and is the most surprising finding in the dataset. Multiple trade press pieces named Croatia as a beneficiary of Eastern Mediterranean demand displacement. The Google Trends data says the opposite. The most plausible explanation is psychological geography: Croatia’s position in the eastern Adriatic makes it feel proximate to the conflict zone for many UK consumers, even though it is geographically and politically unaffected.
Turkey is down 4.7% and Greece is down 2.5%. Both declines are modest.
Where the data contradicts the operator story
Cyprus: +1.2% YoY in search interest. Operators reported a 40% booking collapse. These are not contradictory. When a security incident hits, consumers search the destination to check on existing bookings and investigate cancellation rights. Search volume holds. Booking intent collapses. Trends alone would make Cyprus look fine. Booking data alone would make it look like a disaster. The truth is a demand crisis masked by an information-search surge.
Portugal: Operators reported +42% booking surges. Trends shows +4.5%. A 10x gap. The most likely explanation: cancelled Eastern Med customers rebooking direct, bypassing the generic search entirely. The organic search opportunity is real but considerably more modest than the headline operator figures suggest.
Croatia: Named in multiple trade press pieces as a demand winner. Trends shows -13.9%. Psychological geography. The eastern Adriatic feels too close to the conflict for UK consumers even though it is geographically unaffected.
What this means for travel PPC
The Canary Islands and Spain are the clearest budget allocation signal. Front-load campaigns now. CPCs will rise further as the summer peak approaches and easyJet’s fuel hedges begin to expire in H2 2026 (84% hedged H1, dropping to 62% H2).
France is an underpriced opportunity. Operators with French product face less competitive ad auctions than equivalent Spain or Portugal terms. The demand signal is there and the market has not fully responded to it yet.
For Cyprus and Turkey, the strategic shift is in the message rather than the budget. Neither is under FCDO advisory for resort areas. The decline is sentiment-driven. Campaigns leading with FCDO status, flexible cancellation and booking protection will outperform standard destination creative.
For Croatia, the trade press narrative was wrong. Treat it accordingly.
Greece is down only 2.5% in aggregate. Before making significant bid changes, check destination-level terms. Western islands such as Corfu and Crete are likely holding well while eastern islands closer to Turkey soften.
Book-early messaging is factually accurate right now. easyJet has publicly warned of fare increases as hedges expire. Use it while the window is open.
The full report
We have published the full destination-by-destination analysis, including the complete data breakdown, cost pressure analysis, and eight specific PPC strategy recommendations, as a downloadable report. If you would like a copy, get in touch at hello@summon.co.
If you manage paid search for a travel brand and want to talk through what the current demand picture means for your specific account, we offer a free audit with no obligation.